We won't know until November. At the moment the polls tend to show Obama ahead, though it is quite close and there have been several shifts - and will no doubt be more as the campaign really gets under way.

One area where Romney is definitely struggling is in the way Americans view him personally, apart from policies. Put simply, it seems that the more the voters see him, the less they like him - in the newest poll, the number of people who personally favour Romney has remained at 40%, but the number who dislike him has gone up to 49%. For Obama, the personal popularity rating is much higher - 53%, with 43% saying they dislike him. His recent foreign tour may have had something to do with this, when most observers thought he gave a very poor performance.

However, elections aren't won solely on personalities, of course. On policies the race keeps changing, and as the richest ever presidential candidate Romney will no doubt have some tricks up his sleeve.